The 2022 year ended last week with the celebration of the new year and also with lots of hope that it would turn out to be a blessing for the coal market. The year has ended, however, its effects are still been seen on the market and are also expected to be there for the time being.

Since the year finished let’s take a look back at coal prices, which have seen a good ride during the whole year. Starting from the first day of the year, 1st Jan 2022 brings news of the Indonesian coal export ban which turns up the Indonesian coal prices. The average price of the month for high CV Indo coal CFR Indian basis which for the Jan 21 trading at $ 97.80 touched $ 177.25 on Jan 22, an 81% year-on-year (YoY) price rise and month-on-month (MoM) effect was a 4% hike. Just like that low CV coal sees a 40-45% YoY rise. Talking about the Indonesian coal price in the domestic Indian market, Low CV coal rises to INR 1200-1500 YoY in a Jan month.idee cassettiera fai da te  red leather shirt  calcio jopatro  örhänge tatueringstudio  lampa vu tub led  חזן צוקרמן שמלות כלה מחירים  cablu jack 3.5 rca  rte carta  nike sneaker türkis  червило в ръчен багаж  pink running tights nike  be cleany кърпи wettask руло  gfuel shirt  youtube link to mp3 converter  filtro askoll pratiko 400 

Indonesian prices increase due to the export ban, but at the same time, other origin coals such as in South Africa and Australia show a bigger rise than Indonesia. South African coal prices almost doubled in a year from an average price of Jan 21 of $ 61.60 to $ 136.50 on Jan 22 for the low CV and $ 102.80 to $ 184 for the high CV coal. Aus coal sees a twofold YoY rise in prices.

Going forward when the Indonesian export ban was lifted on Feb 22, the commodity market was taken aback by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine which hit coal prices to an all-time high. The war started at the end of the Feb and prices touch a historical high in March. The price of SA coal touched $ 443 for 6000 NAR and for the same grade Aus coal price was noted at $ 403. Indo 6500 GAR touched $ 333 in Mar.

India experienced its hottest summer in Mar, the shortfall in fulfilling the sky-rocking electricity demand. India’s high demand fuelled the already tight international coal market. Even with 96 million metric tons (MMT) of domestic production in Mar, the power plant’s coal stock was depleting. The Indian govt put the import reduction target to the back seat and instructed gencos to mix up to 10% of imported coal in total coal stock which was once limited to 4%. India furiously increased its coal procurement from the international market. The imports saw a sharp rise from Mar month and even touched a historically high level in June month at 28 MMT of total imports, in which 20 MMT was only thermal coal.

The EU had already taken a decision of sanctioning Russia in March which came into effect in August. With the EU sanctioning Russia, the trade pattern drastically changed. EU was once Russia’s top export destination after deciding to decrease its dependence on Russia and started finding other options for its energy requirements. EU was dependent on natural gas for its electricity generation, however, the reduced supply from Russia forced the world’s top climate-supporting region to turn back to coal. EU for the coal finds the other major sources of the globe such as South Africa, and Indonesia. EU started increasing its procurement, especially for SA-high CV coal. With the trading routes and international trade relations changing, the increasing demand for coal put high pressure on coal prices since supply was limited. While the EU needed to find other sources for imports, Russia also needed to find other destinations for commodity exports. Russia started offering competitive prices to the counties which did not put any sanctions on Russia. India-China being one of them benefited from the competitive prices of coal and the world increased its procurement to a great extent. From the graph can be easily inferred that Russian-delivered coal prices to India were lowered than other origin coal.

Importing Russian coal was not easy for the counties since sanctions took SWIFT financial services from Russia. The sanctions fundamentally change the geopolitics of cross-border payments, but the increasing use of the yuan helps to settle payments.

Prices elevated in Oct month with the strike at South Africa’s large rail, port, and pipeline company, Transnet SOC Ltd, that paralysed the state-owned logistics firm and impacted commodities exports from Africa’s most advanced economy. The larger effect of it is seen in the EU market since it was preferring SA-high CV coal. The price however in Nov simmer down with the EU’s historic LNG imports in the month. in between Indonesia and Aus wet weather also hampered the supply.

EU’s demand has impacted global prices at the same time muted demand from the Chinese market for the H2 of 2022 due to the Covid restrictions and lockdowns around the country cooling off the prices to some extent by the end of the year. Indian demand for imported coal stayed moderate for the last two-three month of the year. EU till the end of the year with plentiful supplies of liquefied natural gas, normal than expected winter, higher-than-normal stocks, and a customary year-end slowdown in industrial demand managed to pull the price down.

Exporters will likely be disappointed at a policy- and cost-driven decline in important demand

SYDNEY — In describing India as an “amazing opportunity,” U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry presumably is eyeing it as a long-term export destination for American coal that would be used to power plants built with American technology.

If this is the case, then the energy secretary is mistaken.

Granted, U.S. coal exports surged in 2017 mostly on demand from Asia. Thermal coal—used for power generation as opposed to metallurgical manufacturing purposes — accounted for most of that increase. India was the No. 1 destination.

And it’s also true that India will continue to import metallurgical coal for the foreseeable future due to a lack of sufficient suitable domestic reserves, even with the state-owned Coal India in 2017 announcing a target to halve metallurgical imports by 2030.

However, in the long -term, India will cease to be a thermal coal export destination for any country, the U.S. included.

While the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its most recent World Energy Outlook has India’s coal imports rising 72 million tonnes coal equivalent (Mtce) to 235Mtce by 2040, that forecast should qualified on a couple of points.

First, the IEA projects that three-quarters of the increase will be driven by metallurgical coal. Second, the agency has left itself plenty of wiggle room for change.

There’s also the fact that the IEA outlook, dated 2017, uses 2016 renewable energy installation data to assess the India’s renewables trajectory, noting that solar-PV capacity increased 80% to 9 GW in that calendar year alone.

The agency also concedes that a faster-than-expected drop in solar costs going forward would “result in significant upside potential for solar PV and downside for coal.”

SO THE IEA WILL VERY LIKELY HAVE TO DECREASE ITS THERMAL COAL IMPORT PROJECTION FOR INDIA its next annual outlook report based simply on the fact that 2017 was a landmark year for Indian renewables.

Last year saw such large reductions in the cost of Indian solar PV and wind power that such renewables are now cheaper than existing domestic coal-fired power. The Indian fiscal year that ended in March 2017 was the first one in which combined renewables installations outpaced coal-fired power construction (with net thermal installs falling 65% year on year to a decade-low 7.7 GW).

The following fiscal year, from April 2017 to March 2018, saw net thermal installs of just 4.2 GW (down an additional 46% year on year) and the addition of more solar PV capacity than all other technologies combined, with a total of 10.4 GW.

In this fiscal year, India has only expanded its renewables ambitions. Power Minister R. K. Singh announced recently the possibility of a 100 GW solar tender program. Although no details have been released as to how such a program would work, it is in line and with an announcement by Japan’s SoftBank that it intends to invest US$60-100 billion in Indian solar.

The India government has also recently announced a move into offshore wind, with a total installed-capacity target of 30 GW by 2030.

The IEA’s overly optimistic view of Indian coal imports is rooted partly in the agency’s assertion that, “For the moment, imports appear to be the cheapest supply option along most of India’s western coastline.”

Since that statement was published, things have turned increasingly sour for Indian west-coast power plants that run on imported coal.

The two largest coal-fired power plants in India, the Mundra power stations owned by Tata Power and Adani Power have proven to be economically unviable due to the doubling of imported coal prices since 2016. Tata Power has stated that it will aim to fuel 50% of its plant’s generation, designed for imported coal, with domestic coal in a move IEEFA estimates would reduce its fuel costs by over US$150m annually relative to current spot prices.

Meanwhile, Adani Power has turned off most of the units at its Mundra plant, as it is cheaper to incur a penalty for breach of power purchase agreement than lose money on every kilowatt hour generated. Adani Power Mundra may now seek bankruptcy protection, a development that hardly seems to support the IEA’s assertion that India’s west coast may become “a new arbitrage point and price marker for global trade.”

Further, the recently reported fate of a stranded coal-fired plant in Jharkhand state, home to India’s largest coal reserves, shows that it isn’t just plants reliant on imported coal that are in trouble. And last month’s cancellation by NPTC, the state-owned utility, of a 4GW coal plant proposed for Andhra Pradesh supports IEEFA’s view.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have said Indian banks face US$38 billion in losses on bad loans to the coal-fired power sector—a sector that contains the most significant loan risk in India.

With banks unwilling to take loss ratios of up to 75% on their power-sector lending, there is no relief in sight and—under these circumstances—it is not surprising that India’s planned coal power pipeline has shrunk by 547 GW since 2010 — hardly a promising indicator for U.S. coal technology opportunities in India.

Indian government actions that may help improve the financial health of the nation’s power distribution companies by driving increased efficiency of domestic coal production and delivery will only result in even less need for thermal coal imports. India’s electricity generation future, in other words, will be based on cheap renewables and domestic coal, with the Central Electricity Authority continuing to target a cessation of thermal coal imports.

The IEA in its outlook concedes that “A reversal in the projected trend of rising imports is possible if circumstances change” and says such a change “would have significant repercussions for coal exporters around the world.”

Given that India’s coal imports peaked in 2014/15 and have declined nearly every quarter since, IEEFA would contend that those circumstances have changed already.

Simon Nicholas is a Sydney-based IEEFA energy finance analyst.

London — US coal exports totaled 7.2 million mt in June, down 12.6% from May and down 21.6% from the year-ago month, according to US Census data Friday.

Exports dropped as global seaborne thermal coal prices hit three-month lows in June, with European-delivered CIF ARA prices averaging $48.36/mt, down 50% from the year-ago month.

Loading issues in New Orleans caused by high river levels and a decline in US coal railcar loadings also curbed exports for the month.

“The decline in railcar loadings has been driven in part by weak domestic demand, but has also cut some export supply as rail movements in the West and Midwest were curtailed due to flooding,” S&P Global Platts Analytics said.

Bituminous coal exports in June totaled 2.2 million mt, down 34.1% from the prior month and 39.1% from the year-ago month. Year-to-date bituminous coal exports totaled 17.1 million mt, down 14.9% from the same period last year.

Top bituminous coal destinations in June were India, at 607,651 mt compared with 704,596 mt in the prior month; the Netherlands, at 402,561 mt compared with 576,648 mt; and Egypt, at 378,172 mt compared with 334,355mt.

For the year to date, the top bituminous coal export destinations were India, at 4.96 million mt compared with 5.4 million mt in the year-ago period; the Netherlands, at 2.7 million mt compared with 2.1 million mt; and Japan with 1.9 million mt compared with 1.6 million mt.

Subbituminous coal exports totaled 301,660 mt, up 152.4% from the prior month but down 50.7% from the year-ago month. Year-to-date subbituminous coal exports totaled 2.2 million mt, down 37.1% from the same period last year.

Top subbituminous coal destinations in June were South Korea with 226,095 mt compared with 45,523 mt in the prior month, and Mexico at 75,565 mt compared with 14,669 mt.

For the year to date, the top subbituminous coal export destinations were South Korea, at 1.2 million mt compared with 2.7 million mt in the year-ago period; Mexico, at 717,728 mt compared with 1 million mt; and Egypt, at 174,816 compared with zero tons last year.

Metallurgical coal exports in June totaled 4.7 million mt, down 2% from the prior month and down 5.3% from the year-ago month. Year-to-date met coal exports totaled 26.3 million mt, down 8.8% from the same period last year.

Top met coal destinations in June were Japan at 673,803 mt compared with 644,102 mt in the prior month; Brazil at 656,265 mt compared with 560,019 mt and the Netherlands with 381,411 compared with 163,566.

For the year to date, top met coal export destinations were Brazil, at 3.5 million mt compared with 3.9 million mt in the year-ago period; Japan, at 3.3 million mt compared with 2.7 million mt; and the Netherlands, at 2.8 million mt compared with 2.5 million mt.